We've all been there. The quarterly numbers look good. The clients are happy. The system works. Everything is fine. That's the moment you should be looking around the corner, getting clear-eyed about what’s next.
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it" might be the most expensive advice ever given. Just ask Kodak, who thought everything was fine until digital cameras ate their lunch. Or Nokia, who was crushing the phone market right up until they weren't. These weren't clueless companies. They were successful companies that confused "working well right now" with "will keep working forever."
So how do you know when it's time to shake things up? After all, you can't disrupt everything all the time. Through years of business successes and failures, three reliable warning signs have emerged:
First, watch how you celebrate wins. Are your victories getting smaller while your effort stays the same? When you find yourself throwing confetti for hitting last year's numbers, or championing "steady performance" as your big win, it might be time to ask some uncomfortable questions. Success shouldn't require more effort every year just to stay in place.
Second, pay attention to those "weird" competitors. You know, the ones you're tempted to dismiss. Netflix wasn't a threat to Blockbuster, until suddenly they were. Those seemingly small experiments your competitors are running? They're actually market research being funded by someone else. When these experiments start working, even at a small scale, the market is whispering about what's next.
Third — and this is crucial — listen to your top performers. When your best people start saying things like "I'm hitting my targets, but..." or "We're successful, however..." they're not whining. They're giving you free consulting about where your future challenges are hiding.
Here's the truth that most business books won't tell you: The most dangerous time for any system isn't when it's failing. It's when it's working just well enough to make everyone comfortable. When "fine" becomes the enemy of "next."
The true disruptors, the ones who shape their industries rather than get shaped by them, don’t wait for things to break. They make their moves while they still have the resources, market position and breathing room to experiment. Because by the time your current business model is obviously broken, someone else has usually built its replacement.
So, take a hard look at what's working in your business today. And if it’s working a little too well, it might be time to figure out what’s next.
